Estimating student discontinuation in higher education: A methodological framework using institutional data from Indian universities

Abstract

Student discontinuation remains a significant concern in higher education research and policy, particularly in contexts characterised by expanding enrolment and institutional diversification. However, existing studies often rely on inconsistent definitions and fragmented measurement approaches, limiting comparability across institutions. Although institutional datasets such as the National Institutional Ranking Framework provide standardised information on admissions and graduation outcomes, their potential for discontinuation analysis remains underutilised. In addition, institutional datasets often cannot distinguish between permanent dropout and institutional discontinuation, leading to conceptual and methodological ambiguity. The study proposes a methodological framework for estimating student discontinuation using institutional-level indicators. The framework introduces a standardised estimation model based on admitted student counts and graduation outcomes and outlines a replicable analytical workflow for institutional analysis. The applicability of the framework was illustrated using NIRF data from three selected central universities in India. The study contributes by clarifying the conceptual distinction between dropout and discontinuation, introducing a replicable estimation framework, and demonstrating how institutional ranking datasets may be repurposed for progression-oriented higher education research. The framework may support comparative institutional analysis, methodological standardisation, and exploratory policy assessment in contexts where longitudinal student-level tracking systems remain limited.